In the recent by-elections, Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party, achieved its most impressive results to date, sounding a clear warning to the Conservative Party as the next general election looms on the horizon.
Reform UK, under the leadership of Richard Tice, secured 13% of the votes in Wellingborough and 10.4% in Kingswood, aligning closely with its national polling averages. Analysis of major opinion polls indicates a noteworthy surge in support, with an average of 10%, nearly doubling its standing from the previous year.
Historically, Reform UK has faced challenges translating this support into electoral victories. However, Thursday's by-election results suggest a significant portion of Reform's backing came at the expense of the Conservatives, who experienced substantial swings towards Labour.
Polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice's analysis reveals a trend where for every voter shifting from Conservative to Labour since 2019, another has moved to Reform UK. Richard Tice's bold assertion to "smash" and "destroy" the Tory Party at the upcoming general election underscores the party's determination.
Reform UK's appeal lies in targeting voters disillusioned with both major parties. Tice criticizes Labour as vehemently as the Conservatives, but the party's policies, notably a robust stance on immigration and a rejection of the government's net zero commitments, resonate with right-leaning Tory supporters.
In an interview on BBC Radio 5Live, Tice expressed confidence that Reform UK is "coming of age," attributing the party's increasing recognition to its fresh, business-like approach.
Following the by-elections, former cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg urged the Conservatives to address the concerns of voters who turned to Reform, emphasizing common ground between the two parties. Despite this, Rees-Mogg asserted that support for Rishi Sunak's leadership remains steadfast, and by-election outcomes won't alter this perception.
A potential challenge for the Tories lies in the specter of Nigel Farage's return to active campaigning. As honorary president of Reform UK, Farage might play a pivotal role in the party's general election campaign, causing concerns within the Conservative ranks.
Reform UK advocates for proportional representation, challenging the first-past-the-post electoral system. The Conservative stance is that a vote for Reform equates to supporting Labour's Keir Starmer.
While Reform UK's recent by-election performance positions it as a credible contender, it falls short of the benchmarks set by predecessors like UKIP and the Brexit Party, led by Farage. Reform's support, though insufficient for parliamentary seats, could significantly impact the Conservative Party's electoral prospects.
The demographics of the contested constituencies, both strong Leave supporters in the 2016 referendum, indicate a potential concentration of Reform-inclined voters. If Reform continues gaining traction, it may erode right-wing and Brexit-supporting votes, opening avenues for other parties, particularly Labour, in traditionally Conservative areas.
Conservative MPs are taking note of the shifting political landscape. Jane Stevenson, MP for Wolverhampton North East, highlighted the combined Tory and Reform votes' potential impact on Labour in Kingswood. Labour's campaign coordinator, Pat McFadden, predicts internal divisions within the Conservative Party regarding its approach to Reform.
The rise of Reform UK signifies a noteworthy shift in the political dynamics, suggesting the party, despite never having a single MP, holds the potential to influence British politics and shape the composition of the next parliament.
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